U.S. Next Week: Focus on the Industrial Sector and CPI

Matteo Radaelli submits:

Our comments and estimates on major economic data due for release in the USA over the next week:

Empire manufacturing index (Monday 14th), Philadelphia Fed (Thursday 17th) – Both the Empire manufacturing index and the Philadelphia remained in January at levels in line with a continuance of the industrial sector upward trend in early 2011: the first rose from 9.89 to 11.92 and the latest edged down from 20.8 to 19.3. Our expectations is for both the indices to increase in February as better than expected economic growth is reported around the world. An improvement in U.S. consumer spending and the recent strong increase in corporate earnings are likely to boost business morale: our estimate is for the Empire Manufacturing index to increase to 13.4 and for the Philadelphia Fed to 20.5.

Retail sales (Tuesday 15th) – Retail sales data rose at a healthy pace over the last 5 months, reducing concerns on the short term outlook on consumer spending. In January retail sales are expected to confirm the recent positive trend, in line with anecdotal evidence coming from major retailers. Retail sales should increase by 0.6% m/m both in the headline and in the ex-auto figures, while the ex-auto and ex-gasoline figure should increase by a more moderate 0.4% m/m. The data should be in line with our expectations that consumer spending will continue growing in the next few months.

NAHB housing market index (Tuesday 15th) – In January the NAHB housing market index remained unchanged at 16 for

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