Saturday, February 12, 2011

Could the Dow Hit 4,500?

Rolf Norfolk submits:

October 20, 1999: I am at a breakfast briefing run by a British investment house. Scarfing my bacon bap and croissant, washed down with the treacly and malodorous coffee that only hotels can provide, I feel quite the patronised lower-order businessman as I listen to the market overview.

Suddenly, I become uneasy. It's not the stomach registering the high fat food - nothing like it for dealing with last night's alcohol, I find - it's the strange disconnection between what the fund reps are telling me and what they want me to do. They are feeding me dead pig so I will recommend equity investment to my clients - but they're telling me (with relaxed smiles) "the American stock market could be as much as 50% too high, and a correction is overdue", as I reported in a letter to a client the next day.

We sure get bought cheaply, don't we?

It was around the same time that I attended a monthly broker network meeting in Worcester, where another fund house recruiting sergeant told us IFA doughboys how (in 1999) the tech boom was only in its first phase, and a sort of super-boom was coming next


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